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019 _a827207668
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020 _a9781118588093
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020 _a1118588096
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020 _a9781118561690
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020 _a1118561694
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020 _a9781118588062
020 _a1118588061
020 _z9781848214101
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035 _a(OCoLC)827947144
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082 0 4 _a519.5/42
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049 _aMAIN
100 1 _aPomerol, Jean-Charles.
245 1 0 _aDecision-making and action /
_cJean-Charles Pomerol.
260 _aLondon :
_bISTE ;
_aHoboken, NJ :
_bWiley,
_c2012.
300 _a1 online resource (xii, 274 pages) :
_billustrations
336 _atext
_btxt
_2rdacontent
337 _acomputer
_bc
_2rdamedia
338 _aonline resource
_bcr
_2rdacarrier
490 1 _aISTE
504 _aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
520 _a"This book provides a bridge between the latest results in artificial intelligence, neurobiology, psychology and decision-making for action. What is the role of intuition or emotion? What are the main psychological biases of which we must be wary? How can we avoid being manipulated? What is the proper use of planning? How can we remain rational even if one is not an expert in probabilities? Perhaps more importantly for managers, how does one go from decision to action? So many questions fundamental to the practice of decision-making are addressed. This book dissects all issues that arise almost daily for decision-makers, at least for major decisions. Drawing on numerous examples, this book answers, in plain language and imagery, all your questions. The final chapter takes the form of a brief reminder - everything you have to remember to be a good decision-maker."--Publisher's website
588 0 _aPrint version record.
505 0 _aCover; Decision-Making and Action; Title Page; Copyright Page; Table of Contents; Introduction; Chapter 1. What is a Decision, or What Does Decision Theory Have to Teach Us?; 1.1. Actions and events; 1.2. Probabilities; 1.3. Expected utility; 1.4. Subjective probabilities and rationality of the decision; 1.5. Caveats and recommendations; 1.5.1. Distinction between actions and events; 1.5.2. Distinction between decisions and results; 1.5.3. Expectancy-based reasoning; 1.5.4. Identification of all the probabilities and all the possible events.; Chapter 2. Scenarios and Conditional Probabilities.
505 8 _a2.1. Scenarios2.2. Compound probabilities; 2.3. Scenarios and conditional probabilities; 2.4. Decision tree; 2.5. Scenarios, information and pragmatics; 2.6. Pursuance of the scenarios and the just one more push -- 2.7. Conditional probabilities and accidents; 2.8. Caveats and recommendations; 2.8.1. Robustness of the result; 2.8.2. Updating the scenarios and conditional probabilities; 2.8.3. Slight probabilities; 2.8.4. Re-evaluation of decisions; 2.8.5. Knowing how to lose.
505 8 _aChapter 3. The Process of Decision-Making and its Rationality, or What Does Artificial Intelligence Have to Teach Us?3.1. A decision as a problem; 3.2. Decision table; 3.3. The general process of decision-making; 3.4. Case-based reasoning; 3.5. The Olympian point-of-view, and H. Simon's view; 3.6. Information; 3.7. Limited rationality; 3.8. Heuristics; 3.9. Cognitive limitation; 3.10. Feedback on rationality in decisions; 3.11. Caveats and recommendations; 3.11.1. Be imaginative; 3.11.2. Stay on top of the problem and of time; 3.11.3. Filter the information; 3.11.4. Take a retrospective view.
505 8 _a3.11.5. Be reactive rather than optimal3.11.6. Constantly re-evaluate your objectives; Chapter 4. Intuition, Emotion, Recognition and Reasoning or, What Does the Neurobiology of Decision-Making Have to Teach Us?; 4.1. Introduction; 4.2. Animal decision -- 4.3. Recognition-primed decision; 4.4. The brain and emotion; 4.5. Short-term, long-term; 4.6. The Bayesian brain; 4.7. Caveats and recommendations; 4.7.1. Beware of the emotions generated by recognition of decisional patterns; 4.7.2. Structure the knowledge; 4.7.3. The colors of the projection.
505 8 _a4.7.4. Introduce learning into recognition-based learning systemsChapter 5. Decision-Making in the Presence of Conflicting Criteria, or What Does a Multicriterion Decision Aid Have to Teach Us?; 5.1. Preference structures; 5.2. Multicriterion decision aid; 5.3. Weighted sum aggregation; 5.4. Other aggregation methods; 5.5. Aggregation of votes; 5.6. Social choice and collective decision; 5.7. Individual reactions to multicriterion decision-making; 5.8. Constraints and multicriterion decision-making in organizations; 5.9. Caveats and recommendations.
590 _aJohn Wiley and Sons
_bWiley Online Library: Complete oBooks
650 0 _aStatistical decision.
650 0 _aDecision making.
650 6 _aPrise de d�ecision (Statistique)
650 6 _aPrise de d�ecision.
650 7 _adecision making.
_2aat
650 7 _aMATHEMATICS
_xProbability & Statistics
_xBayesian Analysis.
_2bisacsh
650 7 _aDecision making
_2fast
650 7 _aStatistical decision
_2fast
758 _ihas work:
_aDecision-making and action (Text)
_1https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCFRwWMv6KhK49GkpPdGHQ3
_4https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork
776 0 8 _iPrint version:
_aPomerol, Jean-Charles.
_tDecision-making and action.
_dLondon : ISTE ; Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2012
_z9781848214101
_w(DLC) 2012023897
_w(OCoLC)788249080
830 0 _aISTE.
856 4 0 _uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/9781118561690
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