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001			ocn806981314
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005			20240523125535.0
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008			120816s2012 nju ob 001 0 eng
010			_a 2012033650
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019			_a867857734
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020			_a1118515846 _q(epub)
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020			_a111851582X _q(mobi)
020			_a9781118515853 _q(electronic bk.)
020			_a1118515854 _q(electronic bk.)
020			_a1118173139
020			_a9781118173138
020			_z9781118173138 _q(cloth ; _qalk. paper)
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049			_aMAIN
245	0	0	_aHandbook of decision analysis / _cGregory S. Parnell [and others].
260			_aHoboken, New Jersey : _bWiley, _c�2012.
300			_a1 online resource
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
337			_acomputer _bc _2rdamedia
338			_aonline resource _bcr _2rdacarrier
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
588	0		_aPrint version record and CIP data provided by publisher.
505	0		_aChapter One. Introduction to Decision Analysis -- Chapter Two. Decision-Making Challenges -- Chapter Three. Foundations of Decision Analysis -- Chapter Four. Decision Analysis Soft Skills -- Chapter Five. Use the Appropriate Decision Process -- Chapter Six. Frame the Decision Opportunity -- Chapter Seven. Craft the Decision Objectives and Value Measures -- Chapter Eight. Design Creative Alternatives.
505	0	0	_gChapter One. _tIntroduction to Decision Analysis -- _g1.1. _tIntroduction -- _g1.2. _tDecision Analysis Is a Socio-Technical Process -- _g1.3. _tDecision Analysis Applications -- _g1.3.1. _tOil and Gas Decision Analysis Success Story: Chevron -- _g1.3.2. _tPharmaceutical Decision Analysis Success Story: SmithKline Beecham -- _g1.3.3. _tMilitary Decision Analysis Success Stories -- _g1.4. _tDecision Analysis Practitioners and Professionals -- _g1.4.1. _tEducation and Training -- _g1.4.2. _tDecision Analysis Professional Organizations -- _g1.4.3. _tProblem Domain Professional Societies -- _g1.4.4. _tProfessional Service -- _g1.5. _tHandbook Overview and Illustrative Examples -- _g1.5.1. _tRoughneck North American Strategy (RNAS) (by Eric R. Johnson) -- _g1.5.2. _tGeneptin Personalized Medicine for Breast Cancer (by Sean Xinghua Hu) -- _g1.5.3. _tData Center Location and IT Portfolio (by Gregory S. Parnell and Terry A. Bresnick) -- _g1.6. _tSummary -- _gChapter Two. _tDecision-Making Challenges -- _g2.1. _tIntroduction -- _g2.2. _tHuman Decision Making -- _g2.3. _tDecision-Making Challenges -- _g2.4. _tOrganizational Decision Processes -- _g2.4.1. _tCulture -- _g2.4.2. _tImpact of Stakeholders -- _g2.4.3. _tDecision Level (Strategic, Operational, and Tactical) -- _g2.5. _tCredible Problem Domain Knowledge -- _g2.5.1. _tDispersion of Knowledge -- _g2.5.2. _tTechnical Knowledge: Essential for Credibility -- _g2.5.3. _tBusiness Knowledge: Essential for Success -- _g2.5.4. _tRole of Experts -- _g2.5.5. _tLimitations of Experts -- _g2.6. _tBehavioral Decision Analysis Insights -- _g2.6.1. _tDecision Traps and Barriers -- _g2.6.2. _tCognitive Biases -- _g2.7. _tTwo Anecdotes: Long-Term Success and a Temporary Success of Supporting the Human Decision-Making Process -- _g2.8. _tSetting the Human Decision-Making Context for the Illustrative Example Problems -- _g2.8.1. _tRoughneck North American Strategy (by Eric R. Johnson) -- _g2.8.2. _tGeneptin Personalized Medicine (by Sean Xinghua Hu) -- _g2.8.3. _tData Center Decision Problem (by Gregory S. Parnell) -- _g2.9. _tSummary -- _gChapter Three. _tFoundations of Decision Analysis -- _g3.1. _tIntroduction -- _g3.2. _tBrief History of the Foundations of Decision Analysis -- _g3.3. _tFive Rules: Theoretical Foundation of Decision Analysis -- _g3.4. _tScope of Decision Analysis -- _g3.5. _tTaxonomy of Decision Analysis Practice -- _g3.5.1. _tTerminology -- _g3.5.2. _tTaxonomy Division: Single or Multiple Objectives -- _g3.5.3. _tSingle-Objective Decision Analysis -- _g3.5.4. _tMultiple-Objective Decision Analysis -- _g3.5.5. _tTaxonomy Division: Addressing Value Trade-Offs and Risk Preference Separately or Together? -- _g3.5.6. _tTaxonomy Division: Nonmonetary or Monetary Value Metric? -- _g3.5.7. _tTaxonomy Division: Degree of Simplicity in Multidimensional Value Function -- _g3.6. _tValue-Focused Thinking -- _g3.6.1. _tFour Major VFT Ideas -- _g3.6.2. _tThe Benefits of VFT -- _g3.7. _tSummary -- _gChapter Four. _tDecision Analysis Soft Skills -- _g4.1. _tIntroduction -- _g4.2. _tThinking Strategically -- _g4.3. _tLeading Decision Analysis Teams -- _g4.4. _tManaging Decision Analysis Projects -- _g4.5. _tResearching -- _g4.6. _tInterviewing Individuals -- _g4.6.1. _tBefore the Interview -- _g4.6.2. _tSchedule/Reschedule the Interview -- _g4.6.3. _tDuring the Interview -- _g4.6.4. _tAfter the Interview -- _g4.7. _tConducting Surveys -- _g4.7.1. _tPreparing an Effective Survey: Determine the Goals, Survey Respondents, and Means of Distributing and Collecting Survey Data -- _g4.7.2. _tExecuting a Survey Instrument: Developing the Survey Questions, Testing, and Distributing the Survey -- _g4.8. _tFacilitating Groups -- _g4.8.1. _tFacilitation Basics -- _g4.8.2. _tGroup Processes -- _g4.8.3. _tFocus Groups -- _g4.9. _tAggregating across Experts -- _g4.10. _tCommunicating Analysis Insights -- _g4.11. _tSummary -- _gChapter Five. _tUse the Appropriate Decision Process -- _g5.1. _tIntroduction -- _g5.2. _tWhat Is a Good Decision? -- _g5.2.1. _tDecision Quality -- _g5.2.2. _tThe Six Elements of Decision Quality -- _g5.2.3. _tIntuitive versus Deliberative Decision Making -- _g5.3. _tSelecting the Appropriate Decision Process -- _g5.3.1. _tTailoring the Decision Process to the Decision -- _g5.3.2. _tTwo Best Practice Decision Processes -- _g5.3.3. _tTwo Flawed Decision Processes -- _g5.4. _tDecision Processes in Illustrative Examples -- _g5.4.1. _tRoughneck North American Oil Strategy -- _g5.4.2. _tGeneptin Personalized Medicine -- _g5.4.3. _tData Center -- _g5.5. _tOrganizational Decision Quality -- _g5.6. _tDecision Maker's Bill of Rights -- _g5.7. _tSummary.
505	0	0	_gChapter Six. _tFrame the Decision Opportunity -- _g6.1. _tIntroduction -- _g6.2. _tDeclaring a Decision -- _g6.3. _tWhat Is a Good Decision Frame? -- _g6.4. _tAchieving a Good Decision Frame -- _g6.4.1. _tVision Statement -- _g6.4.2. _tIssue Raising -- _g6.4.3. _tCategorization of Issues -- _g6.4.4. _tDecision Hierarchy -- _g6.4.5. _tValues and Trade-Offs -- _g6.4.6. _tInitial Influence Diagram -- _g6.4.7. _tDecision Schedule and Logistics -- _g6.5. _tFraming the Decision Opportunities for the Illustrative Examples -- _g6.5.1. _tRoughneck North American Strategy (RNAS) -- _g6.5.2. _tGeneptin Personalized Medicine -- _g6.5.3. _tData Center Decision -- _g6.6. _tSummary -- _gChapter Seven. _tCraft the Decision Objectives and Value Measures -- _g7.1. _tIntroduction -- _g7.2. _tShareholder and Stakeholder Value -- _g7.2.1. _tPrivate Company Example -- _g7.2.2. _tGovernment Agency Example -- _g7.3. _tChallenges in Identifying Objectives -- _g7.4. _tIdentifying the Decision Objectives -- _g7.4.1. _tQuestions to Help Identify Decision Objectives -- _g7.4.2. _tHow to Get Answers to the Questions -- _g7.5. _tThe Financial or Cost Objective -- _g7.5.1. _tFinancial Objectives for Private Companies -- _g7.5.2. _tCost Objective for Public Organizations -- _g7.6. _tDeveloping Value Measures -- _g7.7. _tStructuring Multiple Objectives -- _g7.7.1. _tValue Hierarchies -- _g7.7.2. _tTechniques for Developing Value Hierarchies -- _g7.7.3. _tValue Hierarchy Best Practices -- _g7.7.4. _tCautions about Cost and Risk Objectives -- _g7.8. _tIllustrative Examples -- _g7.8.1. _tRoughneck North American Strategy (by Eric R. Johnson) -- _g7.8.2. _tGeneptin (by Sean Xinghua Hu) -- _g7.8.3. _tData Center Location (by Gregory S. Parnell) -- _g7.9. _tSummary -- _gChapter Eight. _tDesign Creative Alternatives -- _g8.1. _tIntroduction -- _g8.2. _tCharacteristics of a Good Set of Alternatives -- _g8.3. _tObstacles to Creating a Good Set of Alternatives -- _g8.4. _tThe Expansive Phase of Creating Alternatives -- _g8.5. _tThe Reductive Phase of Creating Alternatives -- _g8.6. _tImproving the Set of Alternatives -- _g8.7. _tIllustrative Examples -- _g8.7.1. _tRoughneck North American Strategy (by Eric R. Johnson) -- _g8.7.2. _tGeneptin Personalized Medicine (by Sean Xinghua Hu) -- _g8.7.3. _tData Center Location (by Gregory S. Parnell) -- _g8.8. _tSummary -- _g9.1. _tIntroduction -- _g9.2. _tPlanning the Model: Influence Diagrams -- _g9.3. _tSpreadsheet Software as the Modeling Platform -- _g9.4. _tGuidelines for Building a Spreadsheet Decision Model -- _g9.4.1. _tKeep Inputs Separated from Calculations -- _g9.4.2. _tParameterize Everything -- _g9.4.3. _tUse Range Names for Readability -- _g9.4.4. _tUse Uniform Indexing for Rows and Columns of a Sheet -- _g9.4.5. _tManage the Model Configurations -- _g9.5. _tOrganization of a Spreadsheet Decision Model -- _g9.5.1. _tValue Components -- _g9.5.2. _tDecisions -- _g9.5.3. _tUncertainties -- _g9.5.4. _tBusiness Units -- _g9.5.5. _tTime -- _g9.5.6. _tRepresentation of Business Units, Value Components, and Time: P & L Calculation Sheet(s) -- _g9.5.7. _tInputs Sheet(s) -- _g9.6. _tSpreadsheet Model for the RNAS Illustrative Example -- _g9.6.1. _tSelectors -- _g9.6.2. _tInputs and Strategy Table Sheets -- _g9.6.3. _tCalculations Sheets -- _g9.7. _tDebugging the Model -- _g9.8. _tDeterministic Analysis -- _g9.8.1. _tSources of Value -- _g9.8.2. _tDeterministic Sensitivity Analysis -- _g9.8.3. _tScenario Analysis -- _g9.9. _tDeterministic Modeling Using Monetary Multidimensional Value Functions (Approach 1B) -- _g9.10. _tDeterministic Modeling Using Nonmonetary Multidimensional Value Functions (Approach 1A) -- _g9.10.1. _tThe Additive Value Function -- _g9.10.2. _tSingle-Dimensional Value Functions -- _g9.10.3. _tSwing Weights -- _g9.10.4. _tSwing Weight Matrix -- _g9.10.5. _tScoring the Alternatives -- _g9.10.6. _tDeterministic Analysis -- _g9.11. _tIllustrative Examples -- _g9.11.1. _tGeneptin -- _g9.11.2. _tData Center Location -- _g9.12. _tSummary.
505	0	0	_g10.1. _tIntroduction -- _g10.2. _tStructure the Problem in an Influence Diagram -- _g10.3. _tElicit and Document Assessments -- _g10.3.1. _tHeuristics and Biases -- _g10.3.2. _tReference Events -- _g10.3.3. _tAssessment Protocol -- _g10.3.4. _tAssessing a Continuous Distribution -- _g10.3.5. _tConditioning Cases -- _g10.3.6. _tThe Reluctant Expert -- _g10.4. _tIllustrative Examples -- _g10.4.1. _tGeneptin -- _g10.5. _tSummary -- _g11.1. _tIntroduction -- _g11.2. _tExploration of Uncertainty: Decision Trees and Simulation -- _g11.2.1. _tDecision Trees -- _g11.2.2. _tSimulation -- _g11.2.3. _tChoosing between Monte Carlo Simulation and Decision Trees -- _g11.2.4. _tSoftware for Simulation and Decision Trees -- _g11.3. _tThe Value Dialogue -- _g11.3.1. _tP & L Browsers -- _g11.3.2. _tTotal Value and Value Components -- _g11.3.3. _tCash Flow over Time -- _g11.3.4. _tDirect EV Tornado Diagram -- _g11.3.5. _tDelta EV Tornado Diagram -- _g11.3.6. _tOne-Way and Two-Way Sensitivity Analysis -- _g11.3.7. _tValue of Information and Value of Control -- _g11.3.8. _tReal Options -- _g11.3.9. _tS-Curves (Cumulative Probability Distributions) -- _g11.3.10. _tFlying Bar Charts -- _g11.4. _tRisk Attitude -- _g11.4.1. _tDelta Property -- _g11.4.2. _tExponential Utility -- _g11.4.3. _tAssessing Risk Tolerance -- _g11.4.4. _tCalculating Certain Equivalents -- _g11.4.5. _tEvaluating "Small" Risks -- _g11.4.6. _tGoing Beyond the Delta Property -- _g11.5. _tIllustrative Examples -- _g11.5.1. _tGeneptin Example -- _g11.5.2. _tData Center -- _g11.6. _tSummary -- _g12.1. _tIntroduction to Portfolio Decision Analysis -- _g12.2. _tSocio-Technical Challenges with Portfolio Decision Analysis -- _g12.3. _tSingle Objective Portfolio Analysis with Resource Constraints -- _g12.3.1. _tCharacteristics of Portfolio Optimization -- _g12.3.2. _tGreedy Algorithm Using Profitability Index and the Efficient Frontier -- _g12.3.3. _tApplication to Roughneck North American Strategy Portfolio -- _g12.3.4. _tPortfolio Risk Management -- _g12.3.5. _tTrading off Financial Goals with Other Strategic Goals -- _g12.4. _tMultiobjective Portfolio Analysis with Resource Constraints -- _g12.4.1. _tCharacteristics of Incremental Benefit/Cost Portfolio Analysis -- _g12.4.2. _tAlgorithm for Incremental Benefit/Cost Portfolio Analysis -- _g12.4.3. _tApplication to the Data Center Portfolio -- _g12.4.4. _tComparison with Portfolio Optimization -- _g12.4.5. _tStrengths and Weaknesses of Incremental Benefit/Cost Portfolio Analysis -- _g12.5. _tSummary -- _g13.1. _tIntroduction -- _g13.2. _tDetermining Communication Objectives -- _g13.3. _tCommunicating with Senior Leaders -- _g13.4. _tCommunicating Decision Analysis Results -- _g13.4.1. _tTell the Decision Maker the Key Insights and Not the Details -- _g13.4.2. _tCommunicating Quantitative Information -- _g13.4.3. _tDetermining and Telling the Story -- _g13.4.4. _tBest Practices for Presenting Decision Analysis Results -- _g13.4.5. _tBest Practices for Written Decision Analysis Results -- _g13.5. _tCommunicating Insights in the Illustrative Examples -- _g13.5.1. _tRoughneck North America Strategy (by Eric R. Johnson) -- _g13.5.2. _tGeneptin (by Sean Xinghua Hu) -- _g13.5.3. _tData Center Location (by Gregory S. Parnell) -- _g13.6. _tSummary -- _g14.1. _tIntroduction -- _g14.2. _tBarriers to Involving Decision Implementers -- _g14.3. _tInvolving Decision Implementers in the Decision Process -- _g14.4. _tUsing Decision Analysis for Decision and Strategy Implementation -- _g14.4.1. _tUsing the Decision Model for Decision Implementation -- _g14.4.2. _tUsing Decision Analysis Models to Support Decision Implementation -- _g14.4.3. _tUsing Decision Analysis to Assess Strategy Implementation -- _g14.5. _tIllustrative Examples -- _g14.5.1. _tRNAS (by Eric R. Johnson) -- _g14.5.2. _tData Center (by Gregory S. Parnell) -- _g14.6. _tSummary -- _g15.1. _tOverview -- _g15.2. _tDecision Analysis Helps Answer Important Decision-Making Questions -- _g15.3. _tThe Purpose of Decision Analysis Is to Create Value for Shareholders and Stakeholders -- _g15.3.1. _tSingle Objective Value -- _g15.3.2. _tMultiple Objective Value -- _g15.3.3. _tIt Is Important to Distinguish Potential Value and Implemented Value -- _g15.4. _tDecision Analysis Is a Socio-Technical Process -- _g15.4.1. _tSocial -- _g15.4.2. _tTechnical -- _g15.5. _tDecision Analysts Need Decision-Making Knowledge and Soft Skills -- _g15.5.1. _tDecision Analysts Need to Understand Decision-Making Challenges -- _g15.5.2. _tDecision Analysts Must Develop Their Soft Skills -- _g15.6. _tThe Decision Analysis Process Must Be Tailored to the Decision and the Organization -- _g15.6.1. _tDecision Quality -- _g15.6.2. _tDecision Conferencing -- _g15.6.3. _tDialogue Decision Process -- _g15.7. _tDecision Analysis Offers Powerful Analytic Tools to Support Decision Making -- _g15.7.1. _tPortfolio Resource Allocation -- _g15.8. _tConclusion.
520			_a"Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling. Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization"--EBL.
590			_aJohn Wiley and Sons _bWiley Online Library: Complete oBooks
650		0	_aDecision making.
650		2	_aDecision Making
650		6	_aPrise de d�ecision.
650		7	_adecision making. _2aat
650		7	_aBUSINESS & ECONOMICS _xDecision-Making & Problem Solving. _2bisacsh
650		7	_aDecision making _2fast
700	1		_aParnell, Gregory S.
758			_ihas work: _aHandbook of decision analysis (Text) _1https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGmpwg7WD7BrR7MdPRwFYX _4https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork
776	0	8	_iPrint version: _tHandbook of decision analysis. _dHoboken, N.J. : John Wiley & Sons, �2012 _z9781118173138 _w(DLC) 2012032884
856	4	0	_uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/9781118515853
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